The Iran War Just Broke the Petrodollarhttps://archive.ph/UpE2MOil consumers paid dollars for energy, those dollars flowed to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, and from there back into Washington’s debt. For 50 years, this petrodollar loop quietly subsidized American borrowing costs and cemented the greenback’s role as the world’s reserve currency.
The 10-year Treasury yield, rather than falling on safe-haven demand as it has in every major recent crisis, climbed from 3.9% at the end of February to above 4.4% within weeks. The rates desk at Bank of America Corp. offered a dry summary: “Foreign official sectors are selling US Treasury bonds.”
The share of Treasuries held by foreign investors had already fallen to around 32%, down from half in the early 2010s. Central banks became net sellers in early 2025. For the first time since 1996, global central banks now hold more gold in aggregate than US government bonds. These were slow-moving trends, easy to dismiss as noise.
This war is driving up the cost of borrowing to run the government. Driving up deficit, adding to the debt.